If you look at the current betting for the World Cup in South Africa this year, only North Korea has a less of a chance than New Zealand of making it beyond the group stages. But as any football fan worth his salt will tell you, every dog has his day, and this is especially true in a competition where a bad performance against a so-called minnow could end a teams dreams of progression, and you don't need to go too far back to find the evidence.
Who could forget Senegal beating of the World Champions in the opening game in Seoul, or South Korea knocking out Italy both in 2002. Cameroon pulled one over on Argentina in 1990 and the Belgians did the same to the hapless Argies 8 years earlier. Anything can happen on the day, history and past performance can count for nothing, and therefore New Zealand have as good a chance as any of causing an upset this time around.
So why should you consider New Zealand to pull off a giant killing performance at this years tournament..? Well lets start at the top with the All Whites management team. Ricky Herbert is one of only a very small and elite group of ex-players to both play in a world cup and then manage their nation side through qualification to the World Cup stage. Whilst no-one would compare Herbert to Maradonna, especially on the pitch, but as a manager he has a wealth of experience and probably a better record of managing at the top level. Where Herbert brings most value to his team will be his realistic understanding of the current crop of players and their capabilities, and his 30 years of experience as a defensive player to draw on.
The reality is that for New Zealand to progress beyond the group stages, Herbert will need to rely on his teams defensive strengths to stifle and frustrate the supposed better opposition, and look to grab a breakaway goal on the counter.
The good news is that at the core of the NZ team is a solid defensive unit, led by Blackburn Rovers experienced centre back, Ryan Nelsen, who will do double duty as captain during the tournament. He will be playing alongside what some may see as just journeyman defenders, but what they lack in quality will be made up for in organisation, cohesion and passion.
Where the All Whites have previously struggled is in the midfield, as the Kiwi Messi or Fabregas has yet to be found, (or even born maybe..?) Whilst there are some up-and-coming midfield players, such as Leo Bertos & Tim Brown, they could be made to look somewhat mediocre against the stars of Italy, or even Slovakia & Paraguay. Maintaining possession in the midfield will be a serious problem for the relatively inexperienced Kiwi team, which will result in poor link-up play with the strikers.
Having said that, anyone who overlooks the likes of Shane Smeltz, Chris Woods, or Rory Fallon, being able to pop up and capitalise on those rare opportunities in front of goal, will find themselves quickly punished for their mistake.
New Zealand's best goal-scoring chances will come from crosses, corners and free-kicks, as the front players are big, strong, and excellent in the air. Rory Fallon proved this with his unstoppable bullet header against Bahrain in the game that took the All Whites to the World Cup finals. If Leo Bertos can provide any level of supply from the wing, then don't be surprised to see New Zealand to grab a surprise headed goal.
Realistically, just qualifying for the finals is as big as winning the World Cup for New Zealand, and the target of qualifying for the Round of 16 is an even bigger ask. But remember in the group stage, a good win over Slovakia, a draw against Paraguay, a loss to Italy, and a handful of goals, might just be enough to progress to the next round.
Worth a tenner...?
