Back in August I took a stab at trying to guess which teams would make it in to the final 32 that would qualify to travel to South Africa next year. At that time 5 teams had already qualified and there were 27 spots left to fill, and in the end I managed to correctly pick 19 of the teams that did manage to qualify, giving me an average of over 70% correct..! (If Yates had been on the ball, he could have gambled some money on my picks, and made a few dollars)
Of the teams that did not make it, the most disappointing result was in the qualifier between Northern Ireland & France. For a game of such magnitude with so much riding on it to be decided on such a blatant handball, clearly shows that something needs to be done to help referees get to the right decision on the night. Whilst I can understand that the introduction of video-technology has the potential to interrupt the flow of a football game, (stopping-and-starting the game), I think that the 10-15 seconds it would take for a TV referee to analyse goals & penalty claims, would have a minimal impact on a game. I mean the game stops for about 30 seconds after a goal or the award of a penalty anyway, so the disruption would be minimal, but the benefit to having games won fairly would be enormous. It's certainly something that could be considered.
Of the other surprises in this last stage of qualifying, Slovenia (ranked 33rd) beating Russia (ranked 13th) was a massive upset in terms of world football. Slovenia are a real European minnow with a population of only just over 2 million, compared to 140 million people in Russia. It was also good to see teams like Honduras, Algeria & especially New Zealand overcoming the odds to qualify, but I could have done without the Uruguayans sneaking in at the expense of Costa Rica.... Never mind...! There are some that say the World Cup is devalued by not having the top 32 strongest teams competing, but part of the magic of this tournament is the chance to see some of the smaller teams creating an upset against some of the world powers of Football. Just imagine New Zealand beating France or Portugal in the group stages, that would be something to see.... Next years tournament will have representatives from all of the 5 football confederations which indicates to me that WC2010 will be a global competition.
So now we have a couple of weeks before the final draw in Cape Town to mull over the possible combinations that we could end up with. The draw will be seeded with the top 7 teams, (based on FIFA rankings), plus South Africa, put in to Pot 1, and the remaining 8 European teams in Pot 2. The remaining 16 teams should be split along confederations lines, so here is how I see the pots working out: -
Pot 1 (seeded teams): Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2 (rest of UEFA): Denmark, Greece, Holland, Portugal, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland
Pot 3 (CAF + rest of CONMEBOL): Algeria, Cameroon, Chile, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay
Pot 4 (AFC + OFC + CONCACAF): Australia, Honduras, Japan, Korea DPR, Korea Republic, Mexico, New Zealand, USA
The draw will consist of a team being pulled from each of the pots to make up the 8 groups for the initial group stages of the World Cup.
From an England perspective, they will be a seeded team and I will keeping my fingers crossed that we don't get Holland or Portugal from pot 2, and maybe Ivory Coast from pot 3 or Australia in pot 4, (although I would not be too disappointed to see New Zealand in England's group just for the fun of it).
With the Australia, USA & New Zealand being in pot 4, it's all about which seeded team they get matched up with. There is a lot of hoping and praying going on in each of those countries that they get lucky and get drawn in the host nation, South Africa's group, as they are seen as the weakest of the seeded teams. I'm not sure whether this would be as good a result as some might think, the World Cup tends to give the host nation a bit of a boost. Looking back over the past 3 world cups, the host nation has made it to at least the semi-final on each occasion, so you never know....
My theory is that regardless of who gets drawn in any particular group, a team needs at least a win and a draw, (2 wins would be better), to have chance of progressing to the next round. This means that Australia, USA & New Zealand could potentially lose to the seeded team in their respective groups, and concentrate on beating the other 2 teams in their groups. Again, I wouldn't want to come up against either Holland or Portugal from pot 2, and I will predict that whichever group that Holland end up in will be known as the infamous 'Group of Death', so keep those fingers crossed. So therefore, from a Australia, USA & New Zealand perspective, a group with South Africa, Slovenia, & Chile would give them a pretty good chance... Again we will have to wait and see...
Finally, I would like to see any of England, Australia, USA & New Zealand drawn in group D as we currently have tickets for 2 matches in that group, but any group will do as long as we get a chance to see our favourite teams...
So keep them fingers crossed and your eyes focused on the draw coming up on December 4th in Cape Town... Less than 200 days to go...
